FORECASTING SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH RATES OF SECTORS OF GEORGIAN ECONOMY – PHASE II.(2014)

For strategic planning purposes, commercial Bank wanted to prioritize various sectors of Georgia’s economy. The main point of focus, among others, was to evaluate short and medium-term growth rates of various industries of Georgian economy. TBSC undertook a comprehensive study to develop reliable forecasts based on accepted methodology and generate medium-term growth forecasts of the industries. For each sector, TBSC calculated, along the growth forecasts, other KPIs, such as profitability and its dynamics, share of business sector turnover in the overall business turnover, growth momentum of the turnover. TBSC analyzed growth drivers for each sector separately. To draw conclusions for long-term prospects of Georgia’s sectors, TBSC also conducted a cross-country retrospective case study of selected CEE and Baltic states to demonstrate possible path of various sectors as a result of approximation with the EU. In the end, TBSC developed the Industry Prioritization Map, demonstrating relative priority of each sector, based on combined criteria – a very convenient and concise toolkit for strategic decision-making.

Nino Kipshidze
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